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DISCUSSION… …Day 4/Sun – Ozarks, Mid-MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys… A regional episode of severe weather is expected on Day 4/Sunday. Significant severe thunderstorms causing all hazards are possible. An upper trough will spread across the region, resulting in a corridor of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow overlapping a very moist and highly unstable air mass. The forecast guidance shows a southwesterly radius of 700 mb, approximately 45-60 kt, over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley environment. Meanwhile, a surface low near northeast KS/northwest MO will deepen early in the period as it rises northeast toward Lake Michigan during the evening. A cold front will develop eastward across the region from late afternoon into the night. Ahead of the front, mid/upper 60s F dew points are expected. Steep mid-level failure rates on top of this moist boundary layer will support strong destabilization. Convection is likely to occur in parts of the Mid-MS/Lower MO Valley Sunday morning. The evolution of this activity is somewhat uncertain, but could continue to develop eastward along a warm front over northern IL/IN. Additional convection is expected in the warm sector, from southeast MO/northwest AR eastward to TN/KY. While storm mode/evolution remains a bit uncertain at this time (could be a mix of supercells and more linear convection), supercell wind profiles combined with favorable thermodynamics will support the severe potential of all hazards over a wide area during the day and night. o’clock. submitted by /u/Sweet_Tea245 |
