![Working Pumpjacks At Sunset](https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1280385662/image_1280385662.jpg?io=getty-c-w750)
imaginima/E+ via Getty Images
Crude oil prices have risen 30% in the past three months, but this is unlikely to cause a drop in US consumer spending or a drop in GDP, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a new report on Monday.
The size of the oil The price increase is small, the GDP headwind from higher prices should be partially offset by lower electricity prices, and the Fed is unlikely to tighten policy in response to the higher prices, according to Goldman strategists led by Jan Hatzius.
“Oil prices have risen by $20 per barrel, compared to $40-plus in the first half of 2008 and $45-plus in the first half of 2022. has already occurred,” Goldman wrote.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA: USE), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (NRGU)
But Continental Resources CEO Doug Lawler told Bloomberg on Monday that crude oil prices are expected to remain elevated and could rise to the $120-$150/barrel range without new production.
“That will send a shock through the system,” Lawler said at the American Energy Security Summit in Oklahoma City.
More price pressure is coming unless policies are put in place to encourage more production, says Chevron (NYSE: CVX) CEO Mike Wirth told the group, echoing Lawler.
“I hear people saying, ‘We’re back to record levels of production… With better policies we would go further than that,’” Wirth said.
After reaching a record high in July, oil production in US shale fields is shrinking and government analysts predict a third straight monthly decline in October.