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Roula Khalaf, editor of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The writer is the author of “Black Wave” and a distinguished fellow at Columbia University’s Institute of Global Politics
Lebanon, and perhaps much of the world, breathed a sigh of relief on Friday when Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the powerful Lebanese paramilitary group Hezbollah, finally spoke after four weeks of silence. He sounded like a warrior, but he didn’t declare war. Lebanon would be spared an all-out confrontation with Israel for the time being. Many Palestinians felt betrayed, not out of a desire for more conflict, but out of desperation for any support amid the devastating Israeli storm of Gaza.
But Nasrallah’s speech was an opening gambit in Tehran’s negotiations with the US over its future place in the region, at a crucial moment not only for the Middle East but also for the Islamic Republic. Tehran’s top priorities are regime stability amid domestic political and economic pressures, securing as many regional assets as possible and ensuring a smooth succession to 84-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei when the time comes.
Iran has spent the past 44 years using the Palestinian cause to further its own interests and strengthen its position with the Arabs – promising to liberate Jerusalem by using proxies to attack Israel far from its own borders, threatening America and playing over generally a disruptive role. But the Palestinian element of the strategy appears to have run its course after Hamas’s Oct. 7 invasion of Israel brought not only retaliatory fury to Gaza but also the largest U.S. military buildup in the region in decades.
Whether Iran was aware of Hamas’ plans or not, it appears that the country did not anticipate the scale of the operation and the responses. Tehran is suddenly staring down the very real prospect of a direct confrontation with the US and Israel – and it appears to have quietly decoupled its interests from those of the Palestinians.
Over the past year, both Nasrallah and the head of Iran’s Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, talked about coordinating Iran’s allies and uniting fronts against Israel. But in his speech, Nasrallah said the Hamas operation was “the result of a 100 percent Palestinian decision.” So much for unity.
This obviously helps to prevent direct reprisals. But Nasrallah added that those who thought the operation or its timing served Iranian interests were wrong. Tehran determines its own course.
Last month, Khaled Meshaal, a top Hamas official, complained that the group had expected more support from Hezbollah. But as he spoke, Nasrallah made it clear that the cavalry would not come. Iran views Lebanon as a forward defense base with Hezbollah as a key line of defense should the regime come under direct threat – it cannot sacrifice this asset for the Palestinians.
Instead, Tehran will increasingly poke America into Syria and Iraq, while Hezbollah will do just enough from southern Lebanon to show that it is helping Hamas. Sixty-one Hezbollah fighters have already been killed, a high number that has shocked their base given the low-intensity warfare on the border. Nasrallah explained it away by claiming that Hezbollah’s tactics keep a third of the Israeli army busy on the northern border.
Nasrallah warned that escalation would be possible if the war against Gaza did not stop or if Israel violated the rules of cooperation with Hezbollah. Nasrallah understands the rhythm of war well. He knows that no American administration has ever called on Israel to cease fire within days or even a few weeks of a conflict breaking out. He chose to speak after four weeks and more than 10,000 Palestinian deaths, with his warning conveniently coinciding with President Joe Biden’s first call for “tactical pauses.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now appears to have tacitly agreed to such pauses.
Two wars are now developing in parallel: the direct one between Hamas and Israel, and the indirect war waged by Tehran. This also means parallel tracks of diplomacy: the first is the immediately pressing task of protecting Palestinian civilians, releasing Israeli hostages, bringing aid to Gaza and reaching a ceasefire. Biden has also put the peace process and a two-state solution back on the agenda. But the longer Israel’s assault on Gaza continues, even with pauses, the harder it will be for the Arabs to participate and for Saudi Arabia to salvage normalization efforts.
Iran also benefits from the ongoing war. It may be in a tight spot right now, but it is adept at turning moments of danger into opportunity. This weekend, Nasrallah will speak again while Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will make his first visit to Riyadh to attend the Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit. The Saudis should ask Raisi not only what Iran wants, but also what it is willing to give up, from Lebanon to Iraq.
Participate the FT’s free digital Global Boardroom conference on November 8 to see Kim Ghattas discuss the implications of the Israel-Hamas war with Andrew England, the FT’s Middle East editor, and guests