The media is making a big splash about a new poll showing Trump leading Biden in five of the six battleground states, but experts warn voters should ignore it.
G. Elliot Morris, Director of Data and Analytics at ABC News/538, tweeted:
three reminders about polls:
(1) Individual polls are subject to many sampling and non-sampling errors
(2) Partisan nonresponse can affect different demographic groups differently
(3) polls taken 360 days before an election are not predictive of outcomes— G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) November 5, 2023
Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia tweeted:
For those complaining about the latest NYTimes/Siena Poll:
–The election is a full year away.
–Biden’s likely opponent faces 91 charges in multiple jurisdictions.
–The economy is clearly improving, but it will take many months for voters to perceive and believe this.Stay calm. Continue.
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) November 5, 2023
The fatal flaw in all current presidential public opinion polls
There is a fatal flaw in all current public opinion polls. The polls treat Trump as if he were a normal presidential candidate. The reality is that Donald Trump is a candidate who will spend much of the 2024 presidential campaign on trial in multiple jurisdictions for 91 crimes. The polls cannot measure the impact the trials will have because the trials have not yet started.
The polls should not be trusted at all. Opinion polls this far before Election Day are not accurate or reliable. Polls that don’t take into account what will likely be the biggest story of 2024 and how it will affect the election are completely irrelevant.
The media needs close elections, or the perception that elections are close to create drama. In theory, drama equals higher ratings, which equals more advertising dollars.
At this point, pollsters might as well be asking questions about the 2028 election, because polls about a year before Election Day are inaccurate and not predictive.
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Jason is the editor-in-chief. He is also a White House press pool and congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a bachelor’s degree in political science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Pricing and professional memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and the American Political Science Association