For the third time in thirty years – and the second in three – the international community has failed to prevent a conflict between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenians in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The latest conflict, which began on September 19 when Azerbaijani forces launched another major offensive to retake the enclave, ended relatively quickly.
Within the first 24 hours of the ‘anti-terrorist operation’, the leaders of the self-declared Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh (NKR) agreed to lay down their arms and Azerbaijan claimed victory. Three days later, as Azerbaijani forces moved to take control of many villages, mines and strategic heights in Nagorno-Karabakh, positioning themselves just outside ethnic Armenian population centers, the NKR agreed to disband its army.
It may have only lasted a few days, but the conflict still claimed many lives, enabled mass displacement and caused unrest in the wider region. And another major humanitarian crisis looms on the horizon.
There are approximately 120,000 ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. After the successful reconquest of the region, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said he would be willing to integrate them into Azerbaijani society. Yet decades of conflict and atrocities mean there is no trust and significant animosity between the two sides. The ethnic Armenians had already begun to move towards Armenia in large numbers. NKR leaders say they expect almost all Armenian residents of the restive region will eventually find their way to their ethnic homeland. This mass exodus is predicted to lead to increased instability and conflict in the region.
International inaction paved the way for this serious situation.
Russia is Armenia’s official “security guarantor” under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) that was put together after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia should therefore do much more to protect Armenian interests in Nagorno-Karabakh than mediate a shaky ceasefire after each conflict. But the Kremlin, which does not want to make Baku an enemy, has never been eager to intervene in tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The country has consistently ignored Yerevan’s requests for help in dealing with Azerbaijani attacks on its territory over the years, refusing to act even as five of its peacekeepers were killed in the latest round of fighting.
Russia is also not the only one turning its back on the region. The European Union and the United States, despite their stated commitment to deepening democracy in the former Soviet landscape, have also shown little interest in preventing further bloodshed and building lasting peace in Nagorno-Karabakh over the past thirty years.
After Armenian forces won the first Nagorno-Karabakh war in 1994, taking control of the regions surrounding the Azerbaijani-majority enclave and expelling thousands of ethnic Azeris in the process, the international community did nothing to put pressure on the Armenians to hold talks with the Armenian armed forces. Azeris and are working towards a lasting peace agreement that would be acceptable to both sides. Instead of lending a helping hand, both the EU and the US turned a blind eye to the simmering tensions, even taking advantage of Azerbaijan’s preparations for the next war by selling the country weapons. Israel and Turkey also benefited from Azerbaijan’s increased military spending, while Russia sold weapons to both sides.
When Azerbaijan won in 2020 (thanks in no small part to the technological advantage it gained from all those foreign arms purchases) no major power showed any interest in providing impetus for lasting peace. Of course there have been negotiations, talks and declarations, but very little has been done to prevent further violence.
The ineffectiveness of international mediation efforts became especially clear when Azerbaijan blocked the Lachin Corridor connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia in 2022. The blockade lasted for more than 250 days without any resistance from the international community and even resulted in the International Committee of the Red Cross being denied access to the enclave.
It didn’t have to be this way. Both sides of this conflict have been and continue to be highly sensitive to pressure from the international community, and especially from the West.
The Armenian side is clearly looking for new allies as the hollowness of Russia’s supposed protection became increasingly apparent. Azerbaijan also has every reason to please the West, as its hydrocarbon wealth comes largely from Western investment. Western countries are also the leading market for gas sales, which the country is keen to expand to offset revenues lost due to declining oil production.
The West’s inaction appears to be the result of a fundamentally flawed understanding of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Many in the West still seem to view Armenia as a loyal Russian ally that would provide no meaningful return on any diplomatic, political or military investment. However, “Russian ally” is clearly not an accurate label for a country that earlier this month launched joint military exercises with the US and joined the Rome Statue of the International Criminal Court, subjecting Russian President Vladimir Putin to arrest warrants if he were visitors.
The perception that Azerbaijan plays a key role in European energy security has been another excuse for Western powers not to intervene, even though the country only accounted for three percent of European natural gas demand in 2022, less than ten percent of what Russia supplied before World War II. large-scale invasion of Ukraine last February and less than half of what Russia continues to supply.
The possible displacement of Nagorno-Karabakh’s entire 120,000-strong ethnic Armenian population threatens a repeat of the humanitarian emergency the region suffered in the 1990s, but in reverse.
The crisis could also have major consequences for Armenian democracy. Azerbaijan’s final victory in Nagorno-Karabakh sent public support for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power in 2018 thanks to a pro-democracy revolution, to an all-time low. The elite that ousted Pashinyan was formed from the military leadership that was successful in the first Nagorno-Karabakh war and could easily use the current situation to take steps to upend democracy.
Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev has spoken of recognizing Armenia’s territorial integrity, but his forces continue to occupy strategic heights in the country. Azerbaijan also continues to seek a “land corridor” to its Nakhchivan exclave west of Armenia, which could further complicate the two countries’ path to building lasting peace. Although talks between the NKR and Azerbaijan are likely to continue, the former has no influence now that its army has been defeated.
Azerbaijan has won on the battlefield, but the seemingly eternal conflict between Baku and Yerevan is far from over. Mass displacement is imminent, and guerrilla conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, civil war and democratic backsliding in Armenia, as well as new interstate conflicts are all very real risks.
The international community should be ashamed of its record in this conflict. The failure to take timely and meaningful action has led to three wars and paved the way for more conflict and bloodshed. The country must urgently stop hiding behind myths about energy security and Russian influence and belatedly commit to doing whatever is necessary to prevent further conflict and displacement in the region.
If the West wants to convince the world of its commitment to the international liberal order and to preventing displacement and ethnic oppression – so important to maintaining continued support for Ukraine – it must act now to ensure that this war is the last .
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.