The upcoming Slovak elections could be an important development in turning the tide against European support for Ukraine, if former Prime Minister Robert Fico is elected.
Sandwiched between Hungary and Poland, Slovakia shares with its neighbors the distinction of being the three countries that have imposed a ban on Ukrainian grain – but that could be followed by a severe curtailment of military and even political support for Ukraine.
Slovakia’s longest-serving prime minister, Fico, was forced to resign in 2018, following the largest mass protests Bratislava had seen since the communist era.
But now, the popular reaction against the war in Ukraine created a path back to power for Fico.
His victory would test the European Union’s ability to remain united against Russia, especially after Poland’s recent feud with Kiev.
Bloomberg reported:
“Slovaks will vote on September 30 in a tight election race, and Fico has taken advantage of concerns about the fallout from the conflict. In a country of 5.4 million that is the most pro-Russian in the region, he has vowed to end military aid to Ukraine, called the Slovak president an “American agent” and opposes NATO membership because of its war-torn neighbor.
“Fico has no problem crossing red lines,” said Boris Zala, co-founder of Smer who now works on policy papers for the Progressive Forum think tank in Bratislava. ‘He will do everything he can to win more votes’.”
As a member of the EU and NATO, Slovakia is geopolitically important. In general, the country has been strong in its support of Ukraine, but the fact is that surveys show that this is the case more than half of Slovaks blame the West or Ukraine for the war.
Yet Slovakia sent weapons, sheltered refugees and supported all sanctions against Russia, damaging energy supplies.
“The return of 59-year-old Fico could quickly change that, calling into question Slovakia’s cooperation with NATO given his fierce criticism of the alliance and the US. It would also increase the influence of Orbán, who opposes sanctions and arms deliveries.”
Fico was the prime minister who led Slovakia to join the euro in 2009, but is now not seen as a pro-EU political force.
“Fico’s objectives will give rise to opposition and dissent abroad, which could lead to Slovakia’s isolation,” said Grigorij Meseznikov, chairman of the Institute for Public Affairs think tank, which has been covering national politics for more than 30 years. year to follow. While still remaining in the EU, he will pull Slovakia ‘outside the European mainstream’, he said.”
Fico’s lead in the polls is three percentage points over his main rival, progressive Slovakia. The lead has narrowed from five points in March.
Fico is also not a big fan of Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, calling it a “distant prospect” due to the ongoing war, corruption and democratic shortcomings.
Reuters reported:
“We are convinced that it is an illusion to deal with this issue at a time when there is a sharp military conflict going on in Ukraine,” Fico said by email when asked if he supported Ukraine’s EU membership and opening of accession negotiations this year.
‘In the future, we can imagine that Ukraine will have the closest possible cooperation with the European Union, including membership. But to do so, it must meet conditions that all other countries seeking membership had met.
For example, we all know that Ukraine is among the most corrupt countries in the world and that the existing government regime is far from democratic standards.”
Fico pledged to halt Slovak arms deliveries to Kiev and has taken a more pro-Russian view of the conflict than most Western allies. “We don’t want a Third World War,” he has declared.
“He said he did not support arms transfers through Slovakia to Ukraine, but added that this may not be completely prevented because ‘the US military can do whatever it wants’ under the cooperation treaty with the United States.”