By Sean Trende for RealClearWire
There was a time, shortly after the 2022 election, when Ron DeSantis, at least in the minds of people who back their predictions with money, became the frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nominee. As 2023 began, DeSantis outpaced the combined field among gamblers .
It was sensible. DeSantis won the 2018 Florida gubernatorial election in a very unfavorable environment for the Republican Party. On a disappointing night for Republicans (at least compared to expectations), DeSantis won his gubernatorial re-election bid by nearly 20 points, shattering the previous Republican margin of victory in the state for that office. Not only that, but he’d done it thanks to picking culture war battles that no one thought he could win, and either winning or coming out unscathed.
Things have changed. DeSantis isn’t exactly a penny stock, but he briefly fell behind Vivek Ramaswamy among gamblers, languishing with first-season voters at just 14.9% in the RealClearPolitics Average.
What went wrong? It is important to recognize in advance that it is still early. As recently as October 2007, Hillary Clinton had a 26-point lead over Barack Obama. At this point in 2007, John McCain was in fourth place, behind Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. By the way, Mike Huckabee, who ultimately finished in second place, only got 3% nationally. The eventual winner John Kerry was in third place in Iowa.
But none of these contenders have been in the top spot before. It seems like there’s a difference between being an unknown that the audience eventually warms to, and being a known quantity that the audience changes their mind about. In any case, while the DeSantis campaign is probably not dead, it is clearly in a sticky situation. How did this happen? It seems there are four factors:
He doesn’t know his own brand. After the 2022 election, DeSantis’ “job” in the Republican Party primaries seemed pretty clear: He’s Donald Trump, but able to get things done. Or, if you prefer: “Trump, but without the baggage.” DeSantis had many of the qualities that MAGA Republicans liked most about Trump. He was prepared to battle the media. He made no apologies for his actions. In the parlance of the time: ‘He fights.’
DeSantis also scored a series of high-profile victories, including taking on the college board over the content of the AP African American History curriculum, replacing the leadership of a famously liberal state college and going to war with the Walt Disney Co. its progressive practices. It would be fair to say that the current backlash against “woke corporations” started in Florida.
That opened up a pretty good line of attack against Trump. Yes, Trump was a major course correction for the Republican Party, whose leadership was too concerned with currying favor in the DC “Swamp.” Yes, he showed that it was possible to fight on issues that the Republican establishment had written off as too toxic and still win elections.
But, the argument went, Trump was ultimately ineffective. After four years, there was no longer a wall, let alone a wall financed by Mexico. Obamacare was not abolished, let alone replaced. And it was hard to say with a straight face that Trump actually hired only the “best people” after his cabinet was constantly reshuffled and moved. Trump’s constant tweeting and hitting back at political opponents, regardless of their position in the political pecking order, created a constant stream of mini-storms that distracted from his agenda.
In other words, DeSantis was well positioned to argue that he would learn Trump’s lessons but deliver on the promises. It was also a good strategic position, because it did not require him to actually attack the still popular (within the Republican Party) Trump.
Instead, DeSantis seemingly opted to re-run Ted Cruz’s failed 2016 campaign. While he had initially defended Florida’s ban on abortions after the 15th week of pregnancy — a position widely popular among the American public — DeSantis later pushed for and signed a six-week ban, which is much less popular . He attacked Trump for being too progressive on trans rights. He claimed that Trump had tried to push through an immigration “amnesty bill.”
The problem here is twofold. First, that approach was tried by Cruz and others in 2015 and 2016, but it failed spectacularly. There is no reason to believe this would suddenly work in 2023, after Trump’s actual presidency.
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This leads to the second problem: people don’t believe it, or they don’t care. Few people consider Trump a social conservative who loudly advocates gay rights and abortion, but this is a well-known fact at this point (and whatever else you may say about his beliefs, Trump’s three justices provided the conservative margin of victory in Dobbs). No one will get Trump’s right on immigration. Other issues, such as Trump’s refusal to implement reforms and his wasteful spending, are a throwback to an earlier Republican Party that likely no longer exists.
Related: Trump praises Ramaswamy after embarrassing DeSantis at debate in viral show-of-hands moment
DeSantis’ opponents are not giving up. In 2015 and 2016, one of the keys to Trump’s success was that the anti-Trump wing of the Republican Party was splintered among many candidates, all eager to reach the “final round” against him. Something similar appears to be happening in 2023. Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Chris Christie and Tim Scott are all competent candidates with different appeal to different types of anti-Trump Republicans. Vivek Ramaswamy is not giving any indication that he wants to leave the field anytime soon. This could potentially have consequences in Iowa, where Trump is polling below 50% in the RealClearPolitics Average polls.
In short, while DeSantis had hoped – and many analysts expected – that this would turn into a two-person race, that situation did not materialize. Instead, we now have a one-person race, and a second tier occupied by four or five other candidates. Furthermore, none of these candidates really have any reason to drop out at this point, given DeSantis’ stumbles and the opportunity for someone to claim the momentum that was once his. In other words, Republicans find themselves in a dynamic similar to 2015 and 2016, with anti-Trump momentum split among multiple candidates, none of whom have a clear incentive to leave the race.
He’s not up to the task. While DeSantis’ big victory in Florida should not be dismissed, we must also remind ourselves that the road to the presidency is paved with the bones of overhyped campaigns that have withered under the national spotlight. DeSantis has proven clumsy on the national trail, struggling to smooth over and connect with “regular” people. Case in point: his awkward expression when asked behind in the polls.
Related: WATCH: CNN Gets Called On Air for Deceptively Editing DeSantis’ ‘Listless Vessels’ Clip
DeSantis is certainly not the first politician to suffer from this mistake. Bob Dole was criticized for always appearing grumpy, despite being recognized as one of the funniest members of the U.S. Senate during his time in office. Those who know the Clintons say they would rather be stuck in an airport with Hillary than Bill. But the presidency is not about a candidate’s “true” self; it is about the outward-looking product that the public must choose to run the country.
Events, dear boy, events. Perhaps the most frustrating possibility is this: the Republican nomination was never really there for Ron DeSantis to win. It’s there for Donald Trump to lose. According to this telling, a large part of why DeSantis was competitive with Trump in November and December was that November of 2022 reminded Republicans of the costs of Donald Trump, with Trump-backed candidates losing close races nationally and likely leaving Republicans the control over power costs. Senate.
This started to change for Trump, not when he started hitting DeSantis. Rather, it happened when the possibility of criminal charges against the former president brought by Democratic prosecutors — or prosecutors hired by Democrats — became a reality. It allowed Trump to focus media attention on himself and his campaign. Perhaps most importantly, it inherently positioned him as a Republican fighting Democrats and the media, two of the things Republicans like him most for.
In other words, DeSantis was and still is caught up in events. If Trump’s candidates had won instead of losing in 2022, we probably wouldn’t even be seriously talking about what went wrong for DeSantis, because his campaign would have been stillborn. Perhaps events will pave its way again in the future. But it seems more likely that they won’t.
Syndicated with permission from RealClearWire.
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