Entering the 10th and final year of the 4-team College Football Playoffwe have a two-time defending champion in Georgia, who is one of only five teams to win a title in the post-BCS era. It was an oversaturation at the top, with the same teams playing in the biggest games of the year. And if you’re one of those lucky teams experiencing a CFP game, congratulations. If not, it’s sickening to see the same matchups over and over again. A review of what has happened over the last nine years of the CFP is downright crazy.
Only 14 teams have made it to the CFP, and half of that field has played in a championship game. Florida State, Washington, Michigan State and Cincinnati are one and done in CFP games. The trio of Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Michigan is a combined 0-8, with the Sooners suffering four playoff losses of their own. Oregon in the inaugural CFP and TCU last year were nationally runner-up in their only respective playoff appearances. Joe Burrow led LSU to a championship in the Tigers’ lone playoff appearance. Ohio State is the only team that has appeared in the CFP at least five times and can produce just one title. Then there is the dominance of Georgia, Clemson and Alabama to round out the group. So which teams outside of that group have the best chance to make the CFP this season?
Of the teams in the AP Top 10, only Texas, USC and Penn State are in attendance never made the CFP. The Longhorns are the only ones of that trio not to nearly miss the playoffs, with Penn State clearly the fifth-best team in the country in 2016 and USC one win away from making the playoffs last year before losing the Pac lost. -12 title game and then the Cotton Bowl. Expanding to the AP Top 15, three more teams that have never made the CFP can be added to the list in Tennessee, Utah and Kansas State. You can make sure the Volunteers don’t break that streak this season after struggling to knock off Austin Peay at home at the FCS level. You cannot exclude the other five non-CFPers mentioned above in the Top 15. Scanning the rest of the Top 25, I don’t see a legitimate contender. So there are only five of us left.
Kansas State surviving a tougher game than most would expect on the road against Missouri on Saturday would be a great start for the Wildcats as they make a New Year’s Six bowl for the second straight season. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see the Texas-Kansas State showdown in the Big 12 championship game later this season, with CFP implications on the line. I’m leaning toward the Longhorns in that game because it would be stupid to bet against Quinn Ewers. Texas also pulled off as much of a non-conference win as anyone in college football when winning on the road against Alabama last weekend. My top choice for anyone bucking the trend is the Longhorns, with the added context that the Big 12 will be easier to maneuver than the Pac-12 or Big Ten.
I give Utah the worst odds of the five that I think can make their first CFP this season. The Pac-12 is just too strong and with how the Utes have looked the first two weeks, it seems likely they will suffer a few losses along the way. If Texas doesn’t make it, I’ll give the best odds to Penn State. There will be a bigger purpose at USC this season, with Caleb Williams still at the core of that team. Somehow it feels like the Nittany Lions are underrated in Big Ten circles, with Ohio State and Michigan dominating those conversations.
Do you want a extraterrestrially crazy prediction for another team? Wyoming. The Cowboys have already defeated Texas Tech this season and there is a spot open for a Group of Five contender, with Tulane losing to Ole Miss. Who will Wyoming play this weekend? Texas. A win over the heavily favored Longhorns and the Cowboys will be on the CFP radar for the rest of the season as long as they remain undefeated.