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According to the latest research, Earth is outside ‘safe operational’ limits in six of nine key areas, compromising its ability to self-regulate and increasing the risk of abrupt and irreversible changes due to human activity.
Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and one of 28 scientists behind the study, described the planet as “a patient who is not feeling well” and said the boundaries of the nine boundaries would determine its fate.
“We don’t know how long we can continue to push these important boundaries before the combined pressures lead to irreversible change and damage,” Rockström said.
The boundaries were defined as: climate change; integrity of the biosphere; land system change; freshwater use; vital phosphate and nitrogen flows; ocean acidification; and ozone layer depletion; as well as newly added measurements of the levels of aerosols and chemical compounds, such as plastics and nuclear waste.
Crossing a planetary boundary does not carry the threat of immediate collapse or irreversible change, the scientists said, but meant reduced resilience and a higher risk of damage to human life.
However, climate change leading to further global warming of more than 1.5°C since pre-industrial times could ultimately lead to tipping points.
Only three of the nine areas – ocean acidification, aerosol levels and ozone depletion – were in the safe operating zone, the researchers found. But both oceans and air pollution were approaching dangerous points, with the latter already crossing limits in South Asia and China.
“We have no indication that the violations are going in the right direction,” Rockström said.
However, the scientists noted that all nine areas could still be rehabilitated, indicating the partial recovery of the ozone layer after the Montreal Protocol phased out the chemicals that caused its depletion.
A related study published in May assessed the limits of the Earth system in combination with social justice issues, concluding that these limits have passed for humans, based on temperature increase, water system disruption and destruction of natural habitats.
Quantifying the interactions between borders was a challenge, the researchers said, with excessive risk in one area increasing risk in others. For example, the evidence suggested that the limits of climate change and the integrity of the biosphere were linked.
“Biodiversity is fundamental to keeping the carbon cycle and the water cycle intact,” said Rockström. “The biggest headache we have today is the climate crisis and the biodiversity crisis.”
The researchers said one of the most powerful solutions would be to return total forest cover to late 20th century levels, and to end the burning of fossil fuels. But this goal has been jeopardized by the increasing use of biomass as a replacement for fossil fuels.
“There isn’t the biomass we need to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere,” says Katherine Richardson of the University of Copenhagen.
Richardson was also critical of the push for carbon capture and storage technology to offset greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. “Carbon capture and storage is a continuation of ‘let’s use it and throw it away when we’re done with it’.”
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