David Stearns returning to New York to become president of baseball operations for the Mets was about one of the worst-kept secrets in baseball. The Mets asked to talk to him after he resigned from Milwaukee and was denied access after last season, but it didn’t take a cocaine-addicted private investigator to find out what would happen if his contract with the Brewers expired. And so it happened, as the Stearns will be running the baseball operation for Steve Cohen at the end of this season.
There’s no doubt that Stearns comes in with a pretty impeccable resume, creating a multi-division winning team with one of the lower budgets in the game with the Brewers. Although getting rid of that version of the Marlins for Christian Yelich and being in the right place at the right time, when the Cubs were just deciding to abdicate their throne in the Central, could have been accomplished by just about anyone. But otherwise, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Josh Hader, Devin Williams, Freddy Peralta and one or two others were produced by Stearns via signing, draft or trade. And he certainly benefited from hiring Craig Counsell as manager, arguably the best in the sport. There are a lot of fans in places like Milwaukee who wish they had Stearns.
Stearns’ hiring in New York has been compared to Andrew Friedman’s hiring in LA, with the parallel being a young executive who had to dance through the raindrops with a small-market team and produce consistent winners while doing so and now F1 -car gets that is. the budget of one of the biggest teams in the league (hopefully Stearns can hire fewer abusers!). However, it’s not as linear as that. Friedman moved west from Tampa after the Dodgers had already become a power, winning two straight NL West titles. While the Mets won 101 games last year, they don’t have quite as many things going for them as the Dodgers (i.e. Clayton Kershaw). Friedman certainly didn’t arrive when the team had just completed a fire sale, as Stearns has done.
Sure, there are some long-term pieces in place, or hopefully there are. It looks like Francisco Alvarez will be behind the plate for at least a decade or more. Mark Vientos has struggled at the plate in The Show, but tore AAA apart enough to be in the mix at third and DH next year. Drew Gilbert could also arrive next season, and Ronnie Mauricio’s tackle is still tantalizing enough to make you wonder if he could claim second base or a corner outfield spot.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t any problems. First, the Mets are pretty old everywhere else. Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and Edwin Diaz will all be over 30 next season. Pete Alonso will be 29 and also entering his final arbitration season. The Polar Bear could be Stearns’ biggest decision once he sits in the chair behind the bigger desk than GM Billy Eppler. Alonso is one of the game’s best sluggers, but when hitters get into their 30s these days, they usually start rolling down the other side of the mound. Alonso could bring back some younger pieces in a trade from a team that thinks he’s the last piece (one wonders if Stearns hasn’t already called Jed Hoyer and the Cubs about it). But he’s also not easy to replace, and Stearns will have to decide whether he wants to commit a lot of years and a lot of dollars to a player who will get them all in his 30s.
Lindor is still a 5-WAR player and isn’t likely to fall off a cliff next year, though his days of competing for MVPs are likely over. Nimmo likely can’t handle center much longer and has seen his strikeouts increase, which is more troubling considering how much he’s sniffed at fastballs this year versus last (13 percent compared to 19 this year). Moving him to corner will be difficult considering how many players the Mets already have trying to do that (Marte, Mauricio, Baty or Vientos might have to do that, and so on). McNeil may already be starting to smell funny.
Plus, the Mets don’t have a rotation for next year. The only signed pitcher is Kodai Senga, along with whatever Tylor Megill or Jose Butto may be (which isn’t much, whatever it is). Stearns is fortunate that both Cohen and Eppler made it very public that the Mets were in a reset, meaning expectations for 2024 aren’t pressing.
Doubly good, because next year’s free agent class is more flea market than Rodeo Drive. There is the hope of Shohei, of course, although he won’t help the rotation in 2024. Additionally, Cody Bellinger could solve the Mets’ centerfield problems, or their first base problems if they trade Alonso, or both. As far as pitchers go: Sonny Gray at 35? Aaron Nola? Eduardo Rodriguez? It’s a good thing Cohen won’t be pushing to field a juggernaut in ’24, and this is yet another area where a trade for Alonso could be attractive, if Stearns can land some young pitching in return. The Mets just don’t have a lot of pitching in the system.
Stearns may run into the problem that whatever he can bring in beneath the surface will be ready for Queens the moment Lindor, Nimmo, McNeil and Diaz are off the boil, keeping the Mets level and keeping the Mets exactly where they are. Or that Vientos, Mauricio and Baty simply never find offense at the MLB level. It seems like it should be a sweet job, given Cohen’s open wallet and flexible attitude. And that could well be the case in a few years. But things won’t be as easy for Friedman as they were in LA, and the patience and comfort he found in Milwaukee won’t be found anywhere in New York.
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