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15% Sig Tornado Risk/45% Sig Hail Risk in temperate areas. Includes OKC metro area. Forecast discussion: Confidence has increased in a corridor with increased potential for strong tornadoes and very large hail, with multiple supercells likely to develop in south-central KS and western/central OK late Monday afternoon, lasting most of the evening continue. That is why a Moderate Risk has been introduced for this area. Daytime warming of the moist low-level air mass, combined with steep mid-level shedding rates, will promote moderate to strong instability developing along/east of the dry line Monday afternoon. Peak pre-convective MLCAPE will likely reach 2500-4000 J/kg over much of central KS in western/central OK and northwest TX. Strong deep layer shear at 40-50 kt will readily support supercells in the initial development of thunderstorms. Convective initiation appears likely early Monday afternoon as the main shortwave trough spreads across NE/KS. Initially, very large hail will be a threat, but most guidance suggests a fairly quick transition to a more linear mode by Monday afternoon/evening, especially as the cold front overtakes the dryline. An increasing threat for damaging winds and embedded tornadic circulations is likely to occur as this mode transition occurs, in combination with strengthening boundary layer shear associated with a strengthening southerly low flyer. This damaging wind/tornado threat could continue into the overnight hours across parts of IA/MO, and the slight risk has been extended eastward to account for this potential. Further south, over western OK and south-central KS, a more modest large-scale increase and associated mid-level height declines, associated with a more westerly mid/upper level jet, will eventually overlay the dry and warm sector late Monday afternoon . Although overall convective coverage is likely to be lower compared to locations further north, there should be a better chance of supercell structures being preserved as shear vectors in the deep layer appear more orthogonal to the initiating boundary (dry line). A low-level southern jet should gain strength to around 40-45 knots in this area through early Monday evening, significantly improving the corresponding low shear and effective SRH. The best chance for strong, potentially long tornadoes and giant hail (7-10 cm) should exist with any supercells that can survive Monday evening in a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space. As with locations further north in KS/NE, upscale growth should eventually occur in Central/East OK. A threat of damaging winds and tornadoes (some potentially strong) should continue with an easterly extent across the Southern Plains Monday evening through early Tuesday, given a suitably unstable and highly sheared environment. submitted by /u/Consistent_Room7344 |
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Moderate risk of severe storms on Monday. Includes OKC Metro Area.
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