The numbers: The leading economic index fell 0.5% in November for the 20th month in a row, continuing to point to a coming recession.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.5% decline in the leading index, a measure of 10 indicators designed to show whether the economy is getting better or worse.
The last time the index fell this many times in a row was during the Great Recession, from late 2007 through 2009.
Key details: Nine out of ten indicators in the survey were flat or negative in November. The only thing positive was the stock in light of a recent rally.
Big picture: The economy has defied widespread predictions of a recession due to a strong labor market and stable consumer spending. The usual patterns of economic activity have also become less predictable since the pandemic.
While some economists think a mild recession is likely, others think the U.S. can escape a recession, especially if the Federal Reserve finishes raising interest rates. The central bank has increased borrowing costs to curb inflation.
Looking forward: “Despite the continued resilience of the economy… the Conference Board predicts a short and shallow recession in the first half of 2024,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board.
Market response: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and S&P 500 SPX rose in Thursday trading.