Around 2017, I realized I was falling behind by using Pandora for free. I kept my account for a few years out of an irrational attachment to it, long after everyone else had moved from Pandora’s digital radio to Spotify. That’s what it feels like to see Golden State try to stop taller, more skilled and more athletic floor spacers who can also eat up space defensively.
Oklahoma City’s best lineup is full of pterodactyls of absurd height and precise shooting. Conversely, Golden State has been doing it for years with a real Napoleon Complex roster. Even their offensive rebounding machine Kevon Looney measures only 6 feet tall. The numbers that relate most to Golden State aren’t the 10-12 record, the lineup’s wingspan, or Klay Thompson’s shooting percentages. They are the glaring shortcomings of the Big 3. Progress is inevitable and the Big Three have fallen behind. A year ago they were discover their gray hair. Now Steve Kerr and Warriors are throwing Brass Rogaine on their gray beards into the Hall of Fame in the form of Chris Paul, Moses Moody and Dario Saric, telling everyone it’s fine as long as their follicles are thinning.
For the past decade, the Golden State’s Gilded Age has been maintained by one main component, or rather three parts, that merged into a whole. Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson have been constants through all four titles and six Finals appearances. They also run the risk of becoming the NBA’s Pandora lineup. Looney has been a fixture in the low post as a screener and rebounder, and they have streamed Harrison Barnes, Kevin Durant or Andrew Wiggins on the wing. Over the years they have been the anchor for several Death constellations.
In recent years, their Big Three has been the mainstay maintaining the Warriors’ estate. Last season, their starting lineup was the only constant on a weighted roster on one of the worst benches in the league. But for the first time, they are the problem and not the solution.
Look no further than Friday night’s loss to the Thunder. Oklahoma City has played Golden State three times this season and each time it came down to the wire. Their second meeting revealed the height advantage Oklahoma City has over Golden State. The Thunder were saved by another mental error from Green, his second in three matchups, but that’s just a microcosm of what’s bothering them.
Golden State’s 29 losses in overtime were symptomatic of a group that has always struggled to take care of the ball. Their 16 turnovers per night are the fourth-worst in the league, behind only San Antonio, Portland, Detroit and Utah, four of the youngest teams in the league.
To make matters worse, the Big Three have been outplayed in their minutes together. For the past decade, Golden State’s trio and their plus-one (Durant, Wiggins or Barnes) could be counted on to break the will of opponents. That third quarter speed runs are gone, as is the grueling efficiency of their Death Lineup.
The winds are changing quickly this season as the lineups feature Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green have built up a negative net rating for the first time in the Steve Kerr era. When you including Andrew Wiggins’ minutesdeflates their lineup even further after being outscored by about three points per 100 possessions to a minus-8.61 when all four are off the floor.
Thompson doesn’t shoot well enough to warrant being a liability defensively, and Green makes knuckle-dragging plays that were excusable as they obliterated teams still trying to catch up. tiki-taka is hardwood.
Here’s a look at how Golden State’s Big 3 combines have fared through the first two months of this season, compared to their production since their first title in 2015.
![Image for article titled The Numbers Don't Lie: Steph, Klay and Dray's Golden State Gilded Age is Over](https://i.kinja-img.com/image /upload/c_fit,q_60,w_645/8f65b259695d9317a4f77012a6c12f69.jpg)
The early Warriors dynasty was defined by the Strength In Numbers philosophy, but in reality that bench was bolstered by a historic trio that outscored teams by nearly 20 points per 100 possessions. They have lost the ability to throttle opponents when they step on the accelerator. By 2022, that lead had been halved. Between the 2019 Finals and the 2022 postseason, Curry, Green and Thompson played a total of 11 regular-season minutes together. But when they came together in the postseason, they once again took Golden State to the next level, just not to the heights they were used to. Instead, the Big 3 got an extra boost from Jordan Poole, Otto Porter, the aging Andre Iguodala, Nemanja Bjelica and Gary Payton II as elements of the most reliable supporting cast Bob Myers, with the exception of Kevin Durant, has ever faced them with linked.
The 2015 and the 2018 postseasons were the only times Golden State outscored their opponent lineups in the Big 3’s minutes over the course of a postseason. Last season, the lineup of Steph, Klay, Dray, Wiggins and Looney led the league in points allowed per 100 possessions (106.4), field goal percentage and points scored (128.5), but their second unit was one of the worst in the league. .
Once the playoffs roll around, the benches get shorter and each team relies heavily on the synergy between their stars. Golden State’s starters may no longer be able to outwit their opponents.
Their 2022 championship looks more like a last hurray than anything. Ironically, Golden State has held on after last season’s debacle when their Big 3 was sitting. Their cornerstones simply don’t keep their promise. While their offensive output drops, they also manage to perform well enough defensively to offset that decline. Two steps forward, three steps back.
At this point in the season, Thompson is on pace to earn a negative on-off rating for the first time since his rookie campaign and he shows no signs of it escape this recession. The rise of Los Angeles and Miami from play-in teams to Finals contenders has warped our perception of the regular season, but Golden State is in trouble. Thompson’s demands for a maximum deal are based on past performance, while his future looks bleak.
Changes could be coming around Curry if their Big 3 can’t be the glue that keeps Golden State in the B-tier of contenders. Sentiment and nostalgia are worthless currency in the postseason. Especially to an ownership group that pays $167 million in luxury tax payments. If the Warriors can’t even correct their deus ex machina lineup, this should be their last dance.
As a society, we are advancing technologically faster than ever before. The same can be said for the NBA, which is constantly evolving. It’s an incredible feat that Golden State lasts 10 years. But all good things eventually come to an end.
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