There are four weeks left in the NFL regular season. I know what many of you are thinking: “Damn, I need to buy Christmas presents already. Maybe I shouldn’t have spent that weekend in Vegas at the end of the summer. Credit cards are about to burn in the coming weeks, but this time of year also marks the final 400 yards of the NFL regular season schedule.
As long as teams were near or at the top of the pack of the first 1200, obvious shortcomings could be ignored. However, in this final lap all mistakes and shortcomings are magnified as there is only so much race left. The Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles And Kansas City Chiefs started this season with a smooth pace. Those steps looked increasingly fragile as the 2023 season’s mile race progressed.
The Chiefs actually came out of the blocks with a season-opening loss to the Lions at home.
Patrick Mahomes & Co. immediately rallied and won the next six games. The Eagles won nine of their first ten games, and the Lions have been winning at a steady pace all season.
For all three teams, the past few weeks have exposed their weaknesses in the interrogation room. No NFL team is perfect. The limits of humanity and the NFL’s harsh salary cap won’t allow that. It’s not hard to figure out each team’s weaknesses. How often these flaws – as well as the total number of them – are exploited is what separates the good, the average and the bad teams.
The Lions’ Thanksgiving game started 71.5 hours after a classic Post-match speech by Dan Campbell. They came back from a twelve-point deficit in just over four minutes to beat the Chicago bears At home. No potential champion should find themselves in such a precarious situation against a team that could clean house after spending two years restocking.
Both the Eagles and Chiefs are staring at two-game losing streaks. The Chiefs never lost back-to-back games at any point during their 2022 Super Bowl championship season. The Eagles lost twice in a row last year, in Weeks 16 and 17, with Jalen Hurts sidelined. After 14 weeks, the two participants of Super Bowl LVII are on the ropes.
The old argument for championship courage can be used for the Chiefs and Eagles, although this is considerably less the case for last season’s runners-up. That argument cannot be applied to the Lions’ roster, as currently constructed, or to the organization as a whole. They have won one playoff game since their last NFL championship – in 1957. Three favorites run into trouble with just a handful of games left in the regular season. They’re all definitely registering on the panic meter.
The defense is an issue, but the Lions offense has seen better days as well
I didn’t invent the panic meter, so I don’t intend to provide exact quantifications of the readings. I prefer to think of these teams as the temperature gauge of a car. As long as it floats center-right – get your head out of politics – a team has no problems. Problems arise as soon as the meter noticeably pushes to the left. If a car gets that hot without any effort being made to cool it down, significant damage can occur.
The Lions are like an old car whose meter regularly stays slightly to the left. For someone who can’t afford anything better, a driver can only carry him for so long. Campbell’s Bunch is a great story. Teams like this give the sport the least respect.
A tough group tries their best to turn around a losing franchise. Their defense has struggled, even in wins, but this Jared Goff-led offense deserves attention as well. He lost fumbles on consecutive drives during their Thanksgiving game against the Green Bay Packers. Jonathan Owens – shoutout to Simone Biles, an American hero still looking to cheer on her husband in the northern elements of Wisconsin – returned it for a touchdown to put his team ahead 20-6 in the first quarter.
While the Packers turned the ball over on downs after the second fumble, they kept the Lions at bay all day. The score didn’t close within one possession until Detroit cut the lead to five points after a touchdown and a successful 2-point conversion attempt with 41 seconds left.
During the Lions’ first game against the Bears in November, three passes were intercepted and they fumbled on special teams. The turnovers were all doubled: two interceptions in the first quarter and a consecutive interception and fumble in the third quarter.
Against the Bears, Week 14 at Soldier Field, the Lions turned the ball over three times. That all happened before the gift of the offside flag that resulted in a winning touchdown for Chicago. The Lions defense is patchy and not as strong as their early season performance. However, their turnover problem couldn’t be solved by Robert Porcher or Dick “Night Train” Lane.
These one-score-win Eagles may have run out of steam
In mid-November, Campbell ordered his team to do just that never feel bad after an NFL win. I agree with him in that every victory in that class is precious, even if some of them deserve deep introspection. Teams like the 2023 Eagles, who win a lot of one-score games, should examine why they continually struggle to pull away from teams.
Of the Eagles’ 10 wins — the first team in the NFL to reach that total this season — only two were by more than one score. Their last four wins required a fourth-quarter comeback. Coming back to win after trailing at halftime in four straight games equaled a competition record. The other three teams to accomplish this feat were the 1971 Cleveland Browns2006 Tennessee titans and the 2011 Arizona Cardinals. Only that Browns team made the playoffs and they lost their first game to the Baltimore Colts.
Like the Lions, the Eagles’ defense has struggled. They don’t come close to the Lions in the defense’s unweighted DVOA rankings. Detroit was 10th while Philly was 21st entering Week 14. For all the Eagles’ talent on the defensive line, their secondary issues. Their defense went against the San Francisco 49ers to the third quarter against the Dallas Cowboys without forcing a kick.
Against the 49ers in Week 13, the Eagles couldn’t keep pace in a 42-19 loss at home. The Cowboys were helped by turnovers in their 33-13, Week 14, Sunday night football victory at home. Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith each lost fumbles during that game.
The Eagles fumbled the Cowboys three times at home in November and were fortunate to get them all back. Without Travis Kelce’s second-half fumble in Week 13, they might not have escaped that game against the Chiefs with a win.
There are few rosters in the NFL as strong as the one in Philadelphia green, but this one isn’t as dominant as last year. The Eagles are capable of returning to the Super Bowl and could even gain home field advantage. They just better not count on a potential NFC Championship Game opponent being left with no options at quarterback after halftime for a second consecutive season.
Ignore the lead for a moment, the Chiefs are in trouble
In this piece, I won’t discuss the performance in the Chiefs’ last two games. Regardless of outside forces playing a role in KC losing for the first time in two straight seasons, the team is 8-5 through 14 weeks.
The Chiefs haven’t lost five games in a season since Alex Smith was the starter last year in 2017, when they went 10-6. In 2016, when Mahomes was still at Texas Tech, they finished with a 12-4 record. They have won the AFC West for the past seven seasons. Mahomes has never played in a road playoff game.
After a championship season, the Chiefs needed to shake some money, resulting in the loss of Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie on the offensive line, as well as wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and defensive back Juan Thornhill.
The defense and offensive line have largely done their part to keep the Chiefs a contender. It’s the pass catchers who let games slip through their fingers. Kelce has been criticized for his spotty performance in 2023. In 2022, he caught 110 passes. This season, the 34-year-old Kelce has 74 catches with four games remaining while averaging more than a full yard less per reception.
Smith-Schuster failed to save the 2023 New England Patriots, but his 78 receptions for 933 yards from 2022 will be missed. Behind him was Marques Valdez-Scantling with 687 yards receiving. Valdez-Scantling currently has fewer than 300 yards receiving on the season and the Chiefs lead the NFL in drops. This while no team scored 30 points against KC this season.
Entering Week 14, the Chiefs had the No. 4 offense and No. 9 defense per DVOA. That said, after two huge and uninspiring losses helped KC to its potentially worst record in seven seasons, even Mahomes can’t play past the reasonable doubt facing the 2023 Chiefs.